SPIKE BROKERS DEALS
- corn DAP North Italy, Dec @233€
- corn DAP Odesa, Ukraine, Nov-Dec @198$
- sunflower oil crude DAP Odesa, Ukraine, Nov-Dec @1’112$
GLOBAL NEWS
UKRAINE
- Over the weekend, Polish farmers blocked the border with Ukraine as part of a trade protest against the agreement between the EU and Mercosur countries. The demonstration lasted for two days. Farmers are planning another blockade on December 10, this time potentially targeting the entire eastern border of Poland.
- From November 1 to November 27, Ukraine exported the following volumes of grains, oilseeds, and their processed products: corn – 2,243 thousand tons, wheat – 1,038.3 thousand tons, barley – 149.4 thousand tons, soybeans – 429.9 thousand tons, rapeseed – 315.4 thousand tons, sunflower seeds – 1.1 thousand tons, sunflower oil – 400.6 thousand tons, soybean oil – 36.1 thousand tons, and meal (soybean and sunflower) – 343.1 thousand tons
- As of November 28, late crops have been harvested in Ukraine: sunflower – 10.22 million tons (from 97% of the area), soybeans – 6.01 million tons (from 99% of the area), and corn – 24.16 million tons (from 96% of the area).
- As of November 25, winter crops have been sown on the following areas: wheat – 4,383.5 thousand hectares (98%), barley – 611.1 thousand hectares (96%), and rapeseed – 1,081.4 thousand hectares (96%).
WORLD
- Turkey has abolished the 8% customs duty on sunflower seed imports within the established quota, while reducing the tariff for out-of-quota imports to 12% from 27%. The adjusted tariffs will be in effect from January 1, 2025, to April 30, 2025. The duty on sunflower oil remains unchanged at 20%.
- Soybean planting in Brazil has reached 86%, surpassing last year’s progress on the same date, when only 74% of the area had been sown.
EUROPE
- Corn production for grain in France in 2024 is expected to reach 13.9 million tons, which is 10% higher than last year’s harvest. The increase is attributed to an expansion in planted areas.
COMMODITY MARKET
CORN
The international market shows divergent pricing trends. Saturation of the European market is projected by February, driving a downward price trend and lower prices for deferred delivery periods. Premiums for later deliveries are almost non-existent, reflecting participants’ uncertainty about future price movements.
In Ukraine, both at seaports and border points, there is active premium purchasing with prompt delivery, driven by traders closing old high-priced sales. Going forward, significant declines in activity on the international market and among buyers are expected, which could negatively impact prices.
Market bids:
- DAP Ukraine (Odesa) ~196-198$
- DAP Ukraine (Danube) ~198-202$
- DAP Ukraine (border) ~180-182€
- FCA Ukraine (border) ~192-194€
- DAP Italy (North)~228-232€
- DAP Germany (West)~210-215€
- DAP The Netherlands (Central) ~205-215€
WHEAT
Buyer activity in the international market remains low.
The Ukrainian market is nearly stagnant, with demand emerging only for high-protein wheat, while demand for feed grains remains weak.
Market bids:
- DAP Ukraine (Odesa) 11.5pro ~208-212$
- DAP Ukraine (Odesa) feed ~203-204$
- DAP Italy (North) feed ~220-225€
SUNFLOWER
Sunflower oil prices dropped by $50/ton this week, trading at $1,110–1,115/ton for December delivery to ports. The external market remains saturated with oilseeds and processed products. Meal prices at the Western border decreased by $15–20/ton, trading at $210–215 DAP Poland. In Ukrainian seaports, meal traded at $190/ton for unpelleted and $200/ton for pelleted product .
Ukrainian processing plants have accumulated sufficient stocks for 1–1.5 months of operation. The decline in global prices for oil and meal has led to a decrease in sunflower seed prices to 24,000–25,500 UAH/ton (delivered to the plant) for a standard oil content of 46% (on dry). The volume of sunflower seed offers increased amid falling prices.
Market bids for sunflower:
- DAP Ukraine (plant) (46% on dry) ~510-540$
- DAP Bulgaria (Central) (44% as is) ~600-610$
- CIF Bulgaria (port) (44% as is) ~590-600$
SOYBEANS
The EU market is saturated with soybeans. Demand from processing plants is low as they are well-supplied with raw materials.
In Ukraine’s domestic market, producers are holding back sales, anticipating better prices.
Market bids for GMO:
- DAP Ukraine (Odesa) ~384-387$
- DAP Italy (North) (train) ~395-400€
- DAP Italy (North) (truck) ~405-410€
Market bids for NON-GMO:
- DAP Ukraine (Odesa) ~425-430$
- FCA Ukraine (border) ~400-405€
- DAP Hungary (Central) ~435-440€
- DAP Italy (North) ~435-440€