SPIKE BROKERS DEALS
- corn DAP Odesa, Ukraine, Nov @200$->197$
- soybean GMO DAP Odesa, Ukraine, Nov @18’600₴->18’300₴ incl. VAT
- soybean GMO DAP Odesa, Ukraine, Nov @390$->385$
- soybean NON-GMO DAP Odesa, Ukraine, Nov @476$
- sunflower DAP plant, Ukraine, Oct- Nov @25’000₴->25’250₴ incl. VAT
- sunflower oil DAP Odesa, Ukraine, Oct @1’060$
GLOBAL NEWS
UKRAINE
- The export of grain, oilseeds, and processed products from Ukraine in the first half of October amounted to: corn – 948.6 thousand tons, wheat – 1,087 thousand tons, barley – 315.5 thousand tons, soybeans – 310 thousand tons, rapeseed – 351.3 thousand tons, sunflower seeds – 15.9 thousand tons, sunflower oil – 246.9 thousand tons, soybean oil – 22.3 thousand tons, and oilseed meal (soybean and sunflower) – 223.6 thousand tons. The export pace surpasses the dynamics of the corresponding period in September.
- In October report, the USDA reduced its forecast for corn production in Ukraine by 1 million tons compared to the September report, lowering it to 26.2 million tons. The soybean production forecast was also reduced by 0.2 million tons, bringing it to 6.6 million tons. On the other hand, experts raised their expectations for wheat production by 0.6 million tons, bringing the total to 22.9 million tons.
WORLD
- The results of the USDA October report on wheat: global wheat production was lowered to 794 million tons, which is 2.8 million tons less than the September data, though this figure remains a record high. The reduction in the overall forecast is due to decreased production in russia and the EU, impacted by adverse weather conditions.
- The International Grains Council left its global production forecasts for wheat and corn unchanged at 798 million tons and 1,224 million tons, respectively. However, the soybean production forecast was raised to 421 million tons, 2 million tons higher than the September estimate.
EUROPE
- The French Ministry of Agriculture has once again lowered its forecast for soft wheat production in 2024 to 25.43 million tons, compared to the previous estimate of 25.78 million tons. Notably, this is almost 28% lower than the 2023 level and marks the smallest production volume since 1986.
- Between July 1 and October 14, corn imports into the EU reached 5.7 million tons, which is 6% higher than the same period last year. Ukraine’s share in the total imports amounted to 48.7% (compared to 42.3% last year). The U.S. has increased its corn exports to the EU by more than tenfold, now holding an 18.7% share. The combined share of Brazilian and U.S. corn accounts for 35.6%.
COMMODITY MARKET
CORN
Global corn prices declined this week, driven by the rapid pace of corn harvesting in the U.S. and improved weather conditions in Brazil, which are expected to accelerate the corn planting season.
In Ukraine, corn prices also fell this week, reaching nearly peak levels for the autumn period. This was due to increased market supply, supported by high harvesting rates and declining global grain prices.
During the first half of October, Ukraine boosted its corn exports, with approximately 948.6 thousand tons shipped. The largest importers were Italy with 281.2 thousand tons, the Netherlands with 204.1 thousand tons, and Spain with 174.3 thousand tons. Ukraine’s corn harvesting campaign is progressing well. As of October 17, a total of 13.18 million tons have been harvested, with an average yield of 5.57 tons per hectare.
Market bids:
- DAP Ukraine (Odesa) ~194-196$
- FCA Ukraine (border) ~190-195€
- DAP Italy (North) ~225-230€
- DAP The Netherlands (Central) ~215-220€
WHEAT
As of October 14, Ukraine had sown 3.349 million hectares of winter wheat, which accounts for 75% of the total planting forecast.
Prices for feed wheat have been decreasing in the direction of the Danube ports and Ukrainian deep-water ports, while prices for milling wheat have mostly remained stable without significant changes.
Wheat exports during the first half of October fell to 1.08 million tons, which is 9.5% less than the corresponding period in September. The largest buyers of wheat during this period were Spain with 272.7 thousand tons, Indonesia with 219.7 thousand tons, and Egypt with 125.1 thousand tons.
Market bids:
- FCA Ukraine (border) 11.0pro ~193-195€
- DAP Italy (North) 11.0pro ~230-240€
- DAP Ukraine (Odesa) feed ~202-204$
- DAP Italy (North) feed ~220-225€
- DAP The Netherlands (Central) feed ~215-220€
SUNFLOWER
Sunflower prices continue to rise due to high demand from processing plants and limited supply from producers. Farmers are in no hurry to sell large volumes of oilseeds, anticipating even higher prices. Processing plants are now willing to pay $520-525 per ton (excl. VAT) for sunflower seeds with a base oil content of 46%. This is at least $10 higher compared to last week’s prices. Sunflower oil prices at the Odesa ports have risen by around $40 over the past week compared to the previous week.
The sunflower harvest campaign is in its final stages. Farmers have harvested 4.51 million hectares, which is 91% of the total sown area. From this area, 9.28 million tons of sunflower seeds have been harvested, with an average yield of 2.05 tons per hectare.
Market bids for sunflower:
- DAP Ukraine (plant) ~500-530$
- DAP Bulgaria (Central) ~550-560$
- CIF Bulgaria (port) ~540-550$
SOYBEANS
The rapid pace of soybean harvesting in the U.S. and Ukraine, along with high supplies of Brazilian soybeans, continues to put pressure on the global market. In Ukraine, domestic prices are also under pressure and are declining. In Ukraine, approximately 2.33 million hectares have been harvested, which accounts for 88% of the total sown area. A total of 5.18 million tons of soybeans have been collected, with an average yield of 2.22 tons per hectare.
Market bids for GMO:
- DAP Ukraine (Odesa) ~375-380$
- DAP Italy (North) (train) ~390-395€
- DAP Italy (North) (truck) ~395-405€
Market bids for NON-GMO:
- DAP Ukraine (Odesa) ~450-455$
- DAP Italy (North) ~430-435€
- DAP Serbia (North) ~430-435€