SPIKE BROKERS DEALS
- corn DAP Odesa, Ukraine, Jan @205$
- rapeseed NGMO ISCC DAP North Germany, Jan-Feb @533€
- sunflower oil crude FCA plant, Ukraine, Feb-Mar @1’065$
GLOBAL NEWS
UKRAINE
- In December, the USDA updated its forecasts for Ukraine’s harvest: corn – 26.5 million tons (previous estimate – 26.2 million tons), barley – 5.9 million tons (previous estimate – 5.4 million tons), rapeseed – 3.75 million tons (previous estimate – 3.6 million tons), sunflower – 12.9 million tons (previous estimate – 12.5 million tons). Estimates for wheat and soybeans remain unchanged at 22.9 million tons and 6.6 million tons, respectively.
- From December 1 to December 11, Ukraine exported the following volumes of grain, oilseeds, and their processed products: corn – 733.2 thousand tons, wheat – 168.3 thousand tons, soybeans – 133.5 thousand tons, rapeseed – 94.1 thousand tons, sunflower seeds – 0.47 thousand tons, sunflower oil – 156.9 thousand tons, soybean oil – 9.6 thousand tons, and oilseed meals – 174.2 thousand tons.
EUROPE
- December USDA estimates for EU harvests: wheat – 121.3 million tons (previous estimate – 122.6 million tons), corn – 58 million tons (previous estimate – 58.8 million tons), barley – 50.4 million tons (previous estimate – 50.75 million tons), soybeans – 2.85 million tons (previous estimate – 2.9 million tons), rapeseed – 17.24 million tons (previous estimate – 17.35 million tons), and sunflower – 8.78 million tons (previous estimate – 9.43 million tons).
COMMODITY MARKET
CORN
European buyers are showing strong activity in the market. Demand from their side is increasing, which, in turn, is driving prices upward.
The Ukrainian corn market demonstrated a positive price trend throughout the week. Buyers are actively encouraging sellers to secure contracts for January-February, considering the anticipated increase in logistics costs in February. This is prompting producers to accelerate their sales. On average, prices in the ports of Odesa have risen by $4, reaching $204-205.
Market bids:
- DAP Ukraine (Odesa) ~204-205$
- DAP Ukraine (border) ~180-182€
- FCA Ukraine (border) ~193-195€
- DAP Germany (West)~230-235€
- DAP Italy (North)~230-235€
WHEAT
In Ukraine, prices for milling wheat remained relatively stable compared to last week. However, feed wheat showed a slight increase, driven by rising prices in the neighboring feed corn and barley markets.
Market bids:
- DAP Ukraine (Odesa) 11.5pro ~210-212$
- DAP Ukraine (Odesa) feed ~204-206$
- DAP Italy (North) feed ~224-230€
- DAP Germany (West)~230-235€
- DAP The Netherlands (Central) ~220-225€
RAPESEEDS
Strong demand in the EU is driving buyers to actively procure supplies, particularly from Canada and the new harvest in Australia. The substantial supply expected from these countries by the end of February is creating competitive pressure on the Ukrainian market, impacting both prices and export volumes.
Market bids for NON-GMO:
- FCA Ukraine (border) (42% as is) ~480-485€
- DAP Germany (North) (40% as is) ~530-535€
SUNFLOWER
In the domestic market, sunflower seed prices remained unchanged throughout the week. At the same time, demand from certain processing plants increased following a recent price adjustment. Supply from producers remains limited, prompting buyers to incentivize sellers with volume premiums and expedited delivery bonuses.
Spot market prices for sunflower oil declined by $15-20, averaging around $1,095 CPT port.
Market bids for sunflower:
- DAP Ukraine (plant) (46% on dry) ~510-535$
- DAP Bulgaria (Central) (44% as is) ~605-610$
- CIF Bulgaria (port) (44% as is) ~600$
SOYBEANS
The low activity of European buyers continues to be attributed to sufficient stock coverage.
In the Ukrainian market, prices in the ports are declining. At the same time, some processing plants have become more active and are willing to offer premiums for large volumes.
Market bids for GMO:
- DAP Ukraine (Odesa) ~380-385$
- FCA Ukraine (border) ~360-365€
- DAP Italy (North) (truck) ~395-400€
Market bids for NON-GMO:
- DAP Ukraine (Odesa) ~425-430$
- FCA Ukraine (border) ~395-400€
- DAP Italy (North) ~430-440€
- DAP Hungary (Central) ~430-435€