SPIKE BROKERS DEALS
- corn DAP Odesa, Ukraine, Oct-Nov @205$ -> 202$ -> 201$
- feed wheat DAP Odesa, Ukraine, Oct-Nov @206$
- soybeans GMO DAP Northern Italy, Oct-Nov (truck) @410€
- soybeans GMO DAP Odesa, Ukraine, Oct @410$ -> 404$
- sunflower oil crude DAP Odesa, Ukraine, Oct @1’025$
GLOBAL NEWS
UKRAINE
As of October 10th, the harvest of late crops in Ukraine is as follows: sunflower seeds – 8.8 million tons (from 87% of the area), soybeans – 4.8 million tons (from 80% of the area), and corn – 10.5 million tons (from 48% of the area).
WORLD
The devaluation of the Brazilian real against the US dollar increases farmers’ income and stimulates agricultural exports from Brazil.
Soybeans expectations in the USDA report on October 11: US soybean yield is projected at 53.1 BPA, US production – 4.579 billion bushels, US ending stocks – 549 million bushels. Global stocks are expected to remain unchanged.
Corn expectations in the USDA report on October 11: US corn yield is forecast at 183.4 BPA, US production – 15.155 billion bushels. US ending stocks are expected to be 1.962 billion bushels, down from 2.057 billion in September. Global ending stocks are projected at 306.83 million tons, down from 308.35 million in September.
Wheat expectations in the USDA report on October 11: US ending stocks are forecast at 819 million bushels, compared to 828 million in September, with global ending stocks at 256.14 million tons, down from 257.22 million in September. The market does not expect any major surprises from USDA.
COMMODITY MARKET
CORN
Corn prices have approached peak levels for the autumn period. In Ukraine, 10.5 million tons of corn have already been harvested.
Turkey has covered more than half of its 1-million-ton import quota by the end of the calendar year. Ukraine is expected to export over 9 million tons of corn by the end of 2024, significantly exceeding Turkey’s demand for 1 million tons. Brazilian corn is actively being offered on European markets at prices $15 lower than Ukrainian corn. The share of US corn in total European imports has increased tenfold compared to last year.
Farmers have started actively offering corn once it reached the level of $200+ CPT Ukrainian port. Due to port infrastructure disruptions in Ukraine caused by attacks from the terrorist state, some ports are experiencing delays in cargo acceptance, and traders are revisiting their trading appetite and risk levels.
At the western border, European buyers’ demand is limited to 190-195€ FCA Chop.
Market bids:
- DAP Ukraine (Odesa) ~200-203$
- FCA Ukraine (border) ~190-195€
- DAP Italy (north) ~230-240€
- DAP Netherlands (central) ~215-220€
WHEAT
Feed wheat prices are trading with a minimal discount of $2-4 compared to milling wheat. Buyers were paying $204-206 for feed wheat with delivery to the Bid Odesa ports. Demand for milling wheat toward the ports is very limited. Exporters have accumulated significant stocks of milling wheat, anticipating a price rise that has yet to materialize. At the western border, milling wheat with a minimum protein content of 11% traded at 195€ FCA Chop, comparable to corn prices in the Italian market direction.
Market bids:
- FCA Ukraine (border) 11.0pro ~193-195€
- DAP Italy (north) 11.0pro ~230-240€
- DAP Ukraine (Odesa) feed ~204-206$
- DAP Italy (north) feed ~220-225€
- DAP Netherlands (central) feed ~215-220€
SUNFLOWER
Sunflower has been harvested from 87% of the area, with a total yield of 8.8 million tons. Sunflower prices continued to rise following the strengthening of sunflower oil prices on the international market. Sunflower oil prices increased by $50 compared to last week, pushing sunflower prices up to $22. With delivery to plants, sunflowers traded at $510 without VAT for a base oil content of 46%.
Market bids for sunflower:
- DAP Ukraine (plant) ~490-510$
- DAP Bulgaria (central) ~540-550$
- CIF Bulgaria (port) ~530-540$
Market bids for crude oil:
- DAP Ukraine (port) ~1’025$-1’030$
- DAP Ukraine (border) ~1’030$-1’040$
- DAP Germany (north-western) ~995€-1’000€
SOYBEANS
Soybean prices remain under pressure. The active offering of Brazilian soybeans on the global market significantly limits price growth opportunities. Prices across all directions remained essentially unchanged, with some even dropping by $5.
Market bids for GMO:
- DAP Ukraine (Odesa) ~395-402$
- DAP Italy (north) (train) ~390-400€
- DAP Italy (north) (truck) ~405-410€
Market bids for NON-GMO:
- DAP Ukraine (Odesa) ~470-475$
- DAP Italy (north) ~445-460€