SPIKE BROKERS DEALS
- corn DAP Odesa, Ukraine, Apr @230$
- feed wheat DAP Odesa, Ukraine, Apr-May @229$
- sunflower oil crude DAP Odesa, Ukraine, Mar @1’140$->1’130$
- sunflower meal DAP border Ukraine, Apr @243$
GLOBAL NEWS
UKRAINE
- From March 1 to March 26, Ukraine exported the following volumes of grain, oilseeds, and their processed products: corn – 2,095 thousand tons, wheat – 962.7 thousand tons, barley – 61.7 thousand tons, soybeans – 267.6 thousand tons, rapeseed – 26.6 thousand tons, sunflower seeds – 24 thousand tons, sunflower oil – 339.5 thousand tons, soybean oil – 48.1 thousand tons, and oilseed meal (soybean and sunflower) – 390.1 thousand tons.
- As of March 27, the total sown area of spring crops in Ukraine includes 79.8 thousand hectares of spring wheat and 315.5 thousand hectares of spring barley.
USA
- Expectations for the USDA Prospective Plantings report on U.S. acreage in 2025: Wheat – 46.47 million acres (46.07 million acres last year), corn – 94.36 million acres (90.59 million acres), soybeans – 83.76 million acres (87.05 million acres).
- Expectations for the USDA Grain Stocks report on U.S. grain inventories as of March 1: Wheat – 1.21 billion bushels (1.08 billion bushels last year), corn – 8.15 billion bushels (8.35 billion bushels), soybeans – 1.9 billion bushels (1.84 billion bushels).
COMMODITY MARKET
CORN
Ukrainian corn continues to compete actively with Brazilian and Argentine corn. In certain markets, it still holds competitive advantages; however, the approaching period of peak supply from South America is expected to saturate the global market.
Domestic prices continue to decline under the pressure of high supply, losing an average of $4–5 per ton over the past week.
New-crop corn has also experienced a slight decrease, trading at $200–202 per ton DAP.
Market bids:
- DAP Ukraine (Odesa) ~225-228$
- FCA Ukraine (border) ~210-212€
- DAP Germany (North-West) ~224-228€
- DAP Netherlands (South) ~228-232€
Crop 2025:
- DAP Ukraine (Odesa) ~200-202$
- FCA Ukraine (border) ~188-190€
- DAP Germany (North-West) ~213-215€
- DAP Netherlands (South) ~214-218€
WHEAT
The approach of the new harvest is exerting both psychological and physical pressure on traders holding long positions. This also impacts prices, as the increasing supply pushes traders to sell more actively and lock in sales of stocks on the export market.
At the same time, Ukrainian producers have accelerated the sale of remaining wheat stocks, accepting current price levels as the likely peak before the new crop, which is trading at a significant discount compared to the old crop.
Meanwhile, new-crop wheat is gaining more interest, leading to a continued narrowing of the spread between old and new crop prices. In Odesa ports, 11.5% protein wheat was traded at $212–214 per ton DAP, while feed wheat was priced at $202–204 per ton DAP.
Market bids:
- DAP Ukraine (Odesa) 12.5pro ~230-232$
- DAP Ukraine (Odesa) 11.5pro ~228-230$
- DAP Ukraine (Odesa) feed ~225-227$
- DAP Italy (North-East) 11pro ~243-245€
- DAP Italy (North-East) feed ~238-240€
Crop 2025:
- DAP Ukraine (Odesa) 12.5pro ~214-216$
- DAP Ukraine (Odesa) 11.5pro ~212-214$
- DAP Ukraine (Odesa) feed ~202-204$
- DAP Germany (North-West) feed ~211-213€
- DAP Netherlands feed (South) ~209-213€
SUNFLOWER
The increased supply of sunflower seeds on the market has allowed processors to accumulate substantial stocks for April, with some plants securing reserves even into May. This has led to a decline in prices, as weakened demand has intensified market pressure. On average, sunflower seed prices have dropped by 400–600 UAH per ton.
Sunflower oil has also decreased by $10–20, trading at $1120–1135 per ton DAP port.
Market bids for sunflower:
- DAP Ukraine (plant) 48% ~530-550$ (excl. VAT)
Market bids for oil:
- DAP Ukraine (Odesa) ~1’120$-1’135$
RAPESEEDS
MATIF futures have experienced significant volatility in recent weeks. After a sharp decline driven by trade wars, prices have started to recover. However, due to ongoing tensions in global trade, the new crop in the EU remains under pressure, which may force Ukrainian exporters to explore alternative markets.
Market bids for NON-GMO (crop 2025):
- DAP Ukraine (Odesa) 43% ~470-480$
SOYBEANS
The soybean market remains sluggish, with limited activity. Prices have seen no significant changes over the past week. In Odesa ports, GMO soybeans were trading at $388–390 per ton DAP, while non-GMO soybeans were priced at $422–425 per ton DAP.
Market bids for GMO:
- DAP Ukraine (Odesa) ~388-390$
- DAP Ukraine (border) ~370-380$
Market bids for NON-GMO:
- DAP Ukraine (Odesa) ~422-425$
- FCA Ukraine (border) ~380-385€