SPIKE BROKERS DEALS
Crop 2024
- sunflower oil crude CPT Odesa, Ukraine, July @1’102$
Crop 2025
- corn CPT Odesa, Ukraine, Nov @203$
GLOBAL NEWS
UKRAINE
- The soybean–rapeseed amendments are returning to the Parliament – they are planned to be introduced into draft law No. 13157 to impose a 10% export duty on soybeans and rapeseed.
- As of June 26, Ukraine has harvested the following volumes: wheat – 22.4 thousand tons, barley – 151.6 thousand tons, peas – 14.2 thousand tons, and rapeseed – 4.6 thousand tons.
- From June 1 to 25, Ukraine exported the following volumes of grains, oilseeds, and processed products: corn – 1,189 thousand tons, wheat – 754.7 thousand tons, soybeans – 266.5 thousand tons, rapeseed – 10.5 thousand tons, sunflower seeds – 1.2 thousand tons, sunflower oil – 261.4 thousand tons, soybean oil – 34.5 thousand tons, and oilseed meals (soybean and sunflower) – 353 thousand tons.
WORLD
- For the first time in six years, Chinese feed producers purchased 30 thousand tons of Argentine soybean meal for September delivery. If the cargo passes Chinese import inspection, it could pave the way for further shipments and reduce dependence on U.S. meal.
- In its June bulletin, MARS left its yield forecasts for soft wheat and corn in the EU almost unchanged compared to May, despite dry weather in the north – at 6.05 t/ha and 7.46 t/ha respectively (last year: 5.55 t/ha and 7.25 t/ha). The rapeseed yield forecast was slightly lowered to 3.17 t/ha (last year: 2.94 t/ha).
COMMODITY MARKET
CORN
The corn market remains in an off-season phase – liquidity is low, and demand is limited to a few isolated buyers. Given the reduction in production and strong export pace, carryover stocks at the beginning of the new marketing season are expected to be minimal or even zero.
New crop corn was traded in the range of $200–203/ton DAP for October–November delivery. Trading activity remains subdued, as market participants are in no rush to sell, anticipating higher price levels.
Market bids:
- DAP Ukraine (Odesa) ~ 225-228$
Crop 2025:
- DAP Ukraine (Odesa) ~ 200-203$
- FCA Ukraine (border) ~183-185€
- DAP Germany (North-West) ~197-204€
- DAP Netherlands (South) ~192-197€
WHEAT
The wheat market remains in anticipation of the start of large-scale harvesting. Demand for the new crop is increasing; however, buyers are holding off on sharp price moves, expecting supply to rise as harvest volumes ramp up. Farmers, in turn, remain cautious in their selling, which continues to support current price levels.
Market bids:
Crop 2025:
- DAP Ukraine (Odesa) 12.5pro ~210-212$
- DAP Ukraine (Odesa) 11.5pro ~208-210$
- DAP Ukraine (Odesa) feed ~200-202$
- DAP Germany (North-West) feed ~195-205€
- DAP Netherlands (South) feed ~185-202€
BARLEY
There is sustained strong demand for barley at the ports, which continues to support upward price movement. The premium for China stands at $2–3/ton.
Market bids:
Crop 2025:
- DAP Ukraine (Odesa) ~ 192-195$
- DAP Germany (North-West) ~ 170-185€
- DAP Netherlands (South) ~ 175-185€
SUNFLOWER
In the new season, sunflower seed production is projected to increase by an average of 1.5–2 million tons, primarily due to the expansion of planted area. Against this backdrop, processors are holding back on procurement activity, anticipating more favorable conditions at the start of the season. This cautious approach is driven by a desire to mitigate price risks and secure better purchasing terms after weak processing margins in the current season.
Market bids for sunflower:
- DAP Ukraine (plant) ~ 535-545$
Crop 2025:
- DAP Ukraine (plant) ~ 525-535$ incl. VAT
RAPESEEDS
Despite a drop of more than €25/ton in rapeseed futures on the MATIF exchange, the Ukrainian market has not shown a corresponding reaction — domestic prices continue to trend upward. Demand from both traders and processors remains strong. The anticipated decline in rapeseed production in Ukraine is further reinforcing this trend, creating favorable conditions for domestic producers. In the new season, rapeseed production is expected to decrease by 800 thousand tons, with exports projected to fall by 500 thousand tons.
Market bids for NON-GMO:
Crop 2025:
- DAP Ukraine (Odesa) ~ 530-540$
- DAP Ukraine (plant) ~ 585-595$ incl. VAT
SOYBEANS
The domestic soybean market remains sluggish, with low trading activity from both processors and exporters. Crushing plants are cautious in their procurement due to weak demand in Europe for Ukrainian soybean meal, which is struggling to compete with cheaper South American supplies. This reduces the economic viability of processing and limits raw material demand. While demand for soybean oil in Europe persists, it is not sufficient to offset the weakness in the meal segment.
Market bids for GMO:
- DAP Ukraine (Odesa) ~388-390$
Market bids for NON-GMO:
- DAP Italy (North-East) ~400-405€