SPIKE BROKERS DEALS
- corn DAP Odesa, Ukraine, Nov-Dec @197$
- wheat 11.5pro DAP Odesa, Ukraine, Nov-Dec @209$
- sunflower meal DAP border Ukraine, Feb-Mar @ 222$
GLOBAL NEWS
UKRAINE
- As of November 21, late crops have been harvested in Ukraine as follows: sunflower seeds – 10.07 million tons (97% of the planned area), soybeans – 6 million tons (99% of the planned area), and corn – 23.62 million tons (94% of the planned area).
- As of November 18, winter crops have been sown across the following areas: winter wheat – 4,380 thousand hectares (98% of the planned area), winter barley – 610.5 thousand hectares (96% of the planned area), and winter rapeseed – 1,081.4 thousand hectares (96% of the planned area).
- From November 1 to November 20, Ukraine exported the following volumes of grains, oilseeds, and processed products: corn – 1,708.2 thousand tons, wheat – 796.1 thousand tons, barley – 66.3 thousand tons, soybeans – 357.1 thousand tons, rapeseed – 264.8 thousand tons, sunflower seeds – 0.8 thousand tons, sunflower oil – 307 thousand tons, soybean oil – 24.8 thousand tons, and meal (soybean and sunflower) – 242.1 thousand tons.
USA
- At the beginning of next year, the United States may introduce nearly a 40% tariff on imports from China, which would directly impact the economic and trade relations between the two countries.
- As of November 10, the winter wheat planting campaign was 94% complete.
EUROPE
- From July 1 to November 19, corn imports to the EU totaled 7.6 million tons, which is 11% higher compared to the same period last year. Over the past week, Ukraine’s share in total imports increased to 49.7% (up from 47.3% the previous week and 46.3% a year ago). Brazil’s share decreased to 19.4% (from 20.3% the previous week and 40.1% a year ago). The U.S. reduced its share over the week to 16.6% (from 17.5% the previous week and 1.3% a year ago).
- Common wheat imports to the EU increased by 1% year-on-year, reaching 3.51 million tons. Ukraine’s share in the import structure decreased over the week to 70.2% (down from 70.6% the previous week but up from 64.7% a year ago).
COMMODITY MARKET
CORN
On the international market, buyers remain largely inactive, while supply from producers remains high. This creates a surplus and intensifies pressure on prices, leading to an imbalance between supply and demand and complicating the conclusion of long-term contracts.
Throughout the week, prices for Ukrainian grain remained stable as the previous decline came to a halt. This was due to a reduction in supply volumes from agricultural producers.
Market bids:
- DAP Ukraine (Odesa) ~194-196$
- DAP Ukraine (Danube) ~198-201$
- DAP Ukraine (border) ~175-178€
- FCA Ukraine (border) ~188-190€
- DAP Italy (North)~225-230€
- DAP Germany (West)~225-230€
- DAP The Netherlands (Central) ~220-225€
WHEAT
The rise in futures prices on the MATIF exchange has not translated into the physical EU market. Throughout the week, prices showed no significant changes. Wheat supply remains abundant, while buyer demand continues to be weak.
Wheat prices on the Ukrainian market have slightly declined. The supply of wheat, particularly milling wheat, remains at moderate levels. Farmers are holding off on sales, anticipating better prices, while buyers are unwilling to raise their purchase bids due to strong competition in global markets.
Market bids:
- DAP Ukraine (Odesa) 11.5pro ~206-208$
- DAP Ukraine (Odesa) feed ~200-202$
- DAP Romania (port) feed ~212-214$
- DAP Italy (North) feed ~220-225€
SUNFLOWER
Throughout the week, processors lowered purchase prices for sunflower seeds, citing a correction in global vegetable oil market prices. However, producers are reluctant to sell despite the risk of further price drops. Farmers continue to withhold sales, aware of the limited raw material reserves at processing plants and holding out for higher prices.
The price of sunflower oil at the ports of Odesa also underwent a correction, declining by an average of $20–25.
Market bids for sunflower:
- DAP Ukraine (plant) (46% on dry) ~560-570$
- DAP Bulgaria (Central) (44% as is) ~630-640$
- CIF Bulgaria (port) (44% as is) ~620-630$
SOYBEANS
Large volumes of Brazilian and American soybeans continue to saturate the European market. Processing plants are almost fully stocked with raw materials, leading to a decrease in demand from their side.
In Ukraine, the supply of soybeans from producers has decreased. Most farmers are no longer willing to sell their harvest due to prices being too low for them.
Market bids for GMO:
- DAP Ukraine (Odesa) ~384-387$
- DAP Italy (North) (train) ~395-400€
- DAP Italy (North) (truck) ~405-410€
Market bids for NON-GMO:
- DAP Ukraine (Odesa) ~425-430$
- FCA Ukraine (border) ~400-405€
- DAP Hungary (Central) ~435-440€
- DAP Italy (North) ~435-440€