SPIKE BROKERS DEALS
Crop 2024
- corn DAP Odesa, Ukraine, May-Jun @232$
- soybean NGMO DAP Odesa, Ukraine, May @…
- sunflower oil crude DAP Odesa, Ukraine, May-Jun @ 1’120$
GLOBAL NEWS
UKRAINE
- The USDA has released its forecast for grain and oilseed production in Ukraine for the 2025/26 marketing year: wheat – 23 million tons (compared to 23.4 million tons in 2024/25), corn – 30.5 million tons (26.8 million tons), barley – 5.7 million tons (5.8 million tons), soybeans – 6.6 million tons (7 million tons), sunflower seed – 14.4 million tons (13 million tons), and rapeseed – 3.7 million tons (3.8 million tons).
- As of May 15, Ukraine has sown the following areas: spring wheat – 215.2 thousand hectares, spring barley – 743.1 thousand hectares, corn – 3,499.9 thousand hectares, sunflower seed – 3,919.3 thousand hectares, and soybeans – 1,732.2 thousand hectares.
WORLD
- The United States and China have agreed to a 90-day trade truce, under which Washington will reduce tariffs from 145% to 30%, while Beijing will lower its tariffs from 125% to 10%.
COMMODITY MARKET
CORN
The reduced activity of Ukrainian traders, who had previously built up sufficient stocks, along with weak demand from foreign buyers, continues to exert downward pressure on the domestic market. As a result, corn prices have continued to decline. Old crop corn at Odesa ports has fallen to $228–232 per ton DAP.
New crop corn was traded at $200–202 per ton DAP. The price spread between the old and new crop remains quite significant — around $30 per ton.
Nevertheless, the sharp price correction has resulted in a tightening of supply, as farmers have started holding back sales. This factor could potentially cap further downside in prices.
Market bids:
- DAP Ukraine (Odesa) ~228-232$
- DAP Germany (North-West) ~221-225€
- DAP Netherlands (South) ~220-215€
Crop 2025:
- DAP Ukraine (Odesa) ~200-202$
- DAP Germany (North-West) ~203-205€
- DAP Netherlands (South) ~202-207€
WHEAT
On Ukraine’s domestic market, processors remain the main driver of demand for old crop wheat. They maintain stable purchasing activity and are offering price premiums for direct deliveries to processing plants compared to port-level prices.
At the same time, old crop wheat prices at Odesa ports continue to decline amid limited buying interest from traders, who are increasingly shifting their focus to new crop supplies.
Market bids:
- DAP Ukraine (Odesa) 12.5pro ~228-230$
- DAP Ukraine (Odesa) 11.5pro ~226-228$
- DAP Ukraine (Odesa) feed ~215-218$
Crop 2025:
- DAP Ukraine (Odesa) 12.5pro ~213-215$
- DAP Ukraine (Odesa) 11.5pro ~210-212$
- DAP Ukraine (Odesa) feed ~198-200$
- DAP Germany (North-West) feed ~201-205€
- DAP Netherlands (South) feed ~198-201€
SUNFLOWER
The sunflower seed market remains in a state of uncertainty. Farmers are reluctant to sign forward contracts for the new crop due to weather-related risks and a lack of price incentives. Processors, anticipating an increase in production in the upcoming season, are in no hurry to raise prices and remain cautious with their purchasing activity.
New crop sunflower seed is currently traded within the range of $530–540 per ton (including VAT), depending on oil content and delivery region.
The premium for high-oleic sunflower seed is also narrowing — the spread has contracted from $100 a month ago to around $50 per ton.
Market bids for sunflower:
- DAP Ukraine (plant) ~535-555$
Crop 2025:
- DAP Ukraine (plant) ~530-540$ incl. VAT
RAPESEEDS
New crop rapeseed was traded at $505–510 per ton on a DAP ports basis. Farmers remain hesitant to actively engage in forward contracting due to weather-related risks and concerns over crop conditions, despite consistently strong demand.
Market bids for NON-GMO (crop 2025):
- DAP Ukraine (Odesa) ~505-510$
SOYBEANS
U.S. and Brazilian soybeans continue to flow into the market, maintaining abundant supply and exerting downward pressure on prices. Under these conditions, buyers see no reason to increase their purchase prices, which limits export opportunities for Ukrainian suppliers.
Market bids for GMO:
- DAP Ukraine (Odesa) ~388-390$
Market bids for NON-GMO:
- DAP Ukraine (Odesa) ~435-440$
- FCA Ukraine (border) ~385-390€
- DAP Italy (North-East) ~420-425€