SPIKE BROKERS DEALS
- corn DAP Odesa, Ukraine, Nov @199$->196$
- soybean GMO DAP Odesa, Ukraine, Nov @391$
- sunflower high-oleic DAP Odesa, Ukraine, Nov @31’800₴ incl. VAT
- sunflower oil crude DAP Odesa, Ukraine, Nov @1’165$
- sunflower meal DAP border Ukraine, Jan-Feb @ 228.50$
GLOBAL NEWS
UKRAINE
- Exports from Ukraine of grains, oilseeds, and their processed products from November 1 to 13 were as follows: corn – 1,115.9 thousand tons, wheat – 496.3 thousand tons, barley – 37.1 thousand tons, soybeans – 226.6 thousand tons, rapeseed – 174.8 thousand tons, sunflower seeds – 0.4 thousand tons, sunflower oil – 220 thousand tons, soybean oil – 15.1 thousand tons, and meal (soybean and sunflower) – 186.1 thousand tons.
- As of November 14, the harvest of late crops in Ukraine was completed as follows: sunflower seeds – 9.95 million tons (97% of the harvested area), soybeans – 5.88 million tons (98% of the harvested area), and corn – 22.34 million tons (88% of the harvested area).
- As of November 11, winter crops were sown in the following areas: wheat – 4,352 thousand hectares (97%), barley – 577.8 thousand hectares (90%), and rapeseed – 1,079.5 thousand hectares (96%).
USA
- In November, the USDA updated its forecasts for the harvest of late crops in the United States: corn – 384.6 million tons (previous estimate – 386.1 million tons), soybeans – 121.4 million tons (previous estimate – 124.7 million tons).
- The harvest campaign for late crops in the United States is nearing completion. As of November 10, 95% of the corn and 96% of the soybeans had been harvested.
- As of November 10, the winter wheat planting campaign was 91% complete.
EUROPE
- FranceAgriMer has lowered its forecast for French soft wheat exports within and outside the EU for the 2024/25 marketing year to 3.9 million tons, which is 62% lower than last season due to the worst wheat harvest in 40 years.
- Corn imports into the EU from July 1 to November 13 totaled 7.1 million tons, which is an 8% increase compared to the same period last year. Over the past week, Ukraine’s share of total imports rose to 47.3% (from 46.4% last week and 44.8% a year ago). Brazil slightly increased its share to 20.3% (from 20% last week and 41.3% a year ago), while the United States reduced its share to 17.5% (from 18.6% last week and 1.4% a year ago).
- EU imports of soft wheat have decreased by 3% to 3.2 million tons compared to last year. Ukraine’s share in total imports declined to 70.6% (from 72.1% last week and 64.4% a year ago).
COMMODITY MARKET
CORN
The sharp increase in MATIF prices last week was largely speculative. The physical market did not react to this. Corn prices in the EU continue to decline due to high supply and weak buyer demand, particularly for deferred deliveries.
Over the past week, grain prices at Ukrainian ports decreased by an average of $2–3 per ton due to high supply, making Ukrainian grain more competitive on the EU market. Another factor supporting the position of Ukrainian corn is the sharp strengthening of the US dollar, which makes American grain more expensive for importers. However, further price reductions are necessary for Ukrainian corn to strengthen its market position significantly.
Market bids:
- DAP Ukraine (Odesa) ~194-196$
- DAP Ukraine (Danube) ~198-201$
- DAP Ukraine (border) ~178-180€
- FCA Ukraine (border) ~188-190€
- DAP Italy (North) ~225-230€
- DAP The Netherlands (Central) ~215-218€
WHEAT
Weak demand and ample wheat supply from key exporters continue to pressure the European market. Additionally, the decline in MATIF wheat futures has influenced the market.
In the Ukrainian market, feed wheat prices have declined, while prices for milling wheat have remained relatively stable. Farmers continue to hold back wheat with high protein content, anticipating price increases.
Market bids:
- DAP Ukraine (Odesa) 11.5pro ~212-214$
- DAP Ukraine (Odesa) feed ~203-205$
- DAP Romania (port) feed ~212-214$
- DAP Italy (North) feed ~220-225€
SUNFLOWER
At the beginning of the week, sunflower seed prices continued to rise due to low supply and strong demand from processors. Sunflower oil prices at Odessa ports increased by an average of $10 over the week. Over the past month, the premium for high-oleic sunflower seeds has risen from 2,000 UAH to 4,000 UAH.
However, by mid-week, prices leveled off, and there was talk about a potential trend reversal in the market. Some processors attempted to lower prices, citing the global decline in oil prices. However, it is important to remember the low sunflower yield in Ukraine this season, which will directly impact the market.
Market bids for sunflower:
- DAP Ukraine (plant) (46% on dry) ~570-585$
- DAP Bulgaria (Central) (44% as is) ~630-640$
- CIF Bulgaria (port) (44% as is) ~620-630$
SOYBEANS
Soybean prices in the European market have experienced a slight correction. Demand from processing plants remains strong, but high soybean supply continues to pressure the European market.
In the Ukrainian market, prices are continuing to decline due to abundant supply following a good domestic harvest.
Market bids for GMO:
- DAP Ukraine (Odesa) ~380-385$
- DAP Italy (North) (train) ~395-400€
- DAP Italy (North) (truck) ~400-405€
Market bids for NON-GMO:
- DAP Ukraine (Odesa) ~425-430$
- DAP Ukraine (border) ~385-390€
- DAP Hungary (Central) ~435-440€
- DAP Italy (North) ~440-450€