SPIKE BROKERS DEALS
- corn DAP Odesa, Ukraine, Nov-Dec @9’250₴ incl. VAT
- corn DAP Odesa, Ukraine, Nov-Dec @199.50$->197$
- corn DAP Danube, Ukraine, Nov @203$
GLOBAL NEWS
UKRAINE
- As of November 7, Ukraine has harvested late-season crops with the following yields: sunflower – 9.68 million tons (from 95% of the area), soybeans – 5.82 million tons (from 96% of the area), and corn – 20.24 million tons (from 83% of the area).
- As of November 4, winter crops have been sown over the following areas: wheat – 4,296 thousand hectares (96%), barley – 543.6 thousand hectares (85%), and rapeseed – 1,073.5 thousand hectares (96%).
- From November 1 to 6, Ukraine’s export of grains, oilseeds, and their processed products amounted to: corn – 612.2 thousand tons, wheat – 199.3 thousand tons, barley – 13.2 thousand tons, soybeans – 104.2 thousand tons, rapeseed – 139.4 thousand tons, sunflower seeds – 0.2 thousand tons, sunflower oil – 96 thousand tons, soybean oil – 5.2 thousand tons, and oilseed meal (soybean and sunflower) – 56 thousand tons.
WORLD
- In October, China imported 8.09 million tons of soybeans, marking the highest monthly volume in four years. Total soybean imports for the first ten months of 2024 reached 89.94 million tons, an increase of 11.2% compared to the same period last year.
USA
- Donald Trump has become the 47th President of the United States. U.S. farmers and trading companies are concerned about whether his re-election could trigger a new trade war with China, the country’s largest importer.
- Average expectations for the USDA’s November WASDE report in the U.S. are: corn – 15.189 billion bushels (compared to 15.203 billion bushels in the October report), soybeans – 4.557 billion bushels (compared to 4.582 billion bushels).
- The U.S. late-season harvest is nearly complete. As of November 3, 91% of the corn crop and 94% of the soybean crop had been harvested.
- The U.S. late-season harvest is nearly complete. As of November 3, 91% of the corn and 94% of the soybean crops had been harvested.
EUROPE
- From July 1 to November 3, corn imports to the EU reached 6.6 million tons, up by 8% compared to the same period last year. Ukraine’s share of total imports was 46.4% (compared to 43.2% last year). The U.S. share currently stands at 18.6% (up from 1.4%). The U.S. is not the only country increasing its share in EU corn imports; Serbia’s share has also risen to 6.8% (from 1.4%). Brazil’s share, on the other hand, has decreased to 20% (down from 42.7%).
- EU imports of common wheat have declined by 3%, reaching 2.96 million tons compared to last year. Ukraine’s share in the import structure accounts for 72.1% (up from 64.4% last year).
COMMODITY MARKET
CORN
The sharp price increase on the MATIF exchange has not yet affected the physical market in Europe. Demand in the EU is largely covered by domestic production, as well as imports from Brazil and the U.S. through the end of the year. Ukraine will need to reduce prices to the level of $188–190 to secure sales markets.
Challenges in external market sales have slowed activity and demand from traders at the ports. At the western border, prices have dropped to the level of €185–188 loaded onto Euro-trains.
Market bids:
- DAP Ukraine (Odesa) ~194-197$
- DAP Ukraine (Danube) ~198-201$
- FCA Ukraine (border) ~186-188€
- DAP Italy (North) ~222-228€
- DAP The Netherlands (Central) ~215-218€
WHEAT
The high supply of grain and low demand are putting downward pressure on the European market and driving prices lower. Additional factors have been the reduction in transportation costs and the decline in wheat prices on the MATIF exchange.
In Ukraine, prices for milling and feed wheat have remained almost unchanged. The supply of milling wheat continues to be limited, while farmers have started holding back feed grain.
Market bids:
- DAP Ukraine (Odesa) 11.5pro ~212-214$
- DAP Ukraine (Odesa) feed ~203-205$
- DAP The Netherlands (Central) feed ~215-218€
- DAP Italy (North) 11.0pro ~235-238€
- DAP Italy (North) feed ~220-225€
🌻SUNFLOWER
The low supply of sunflower seeds, especially those with high oil content, has driven prices on the Ukrainian market close to historic highs. However, some processors have started attempting to push the market downward since mid-week. Farmers are holding firm for now, expecting further price increases.
Sunflower oil prices at the ports of Odesa have risen by an average of $10–15, which in turn is an additional factor supporting higher sunflower seed prices.
Market bids for sunflower:
- DAP Ukraine (plant) ~560-570$
- DAP Bulgaria (Central) ~620-630$
- CIF Bulgaria (port) ~615-620$
SOYBEANS
This week, soybean prices on the European market have shown little change. On the one hand, high supply from the U.S., Brazil, and Ukraine puts pressure on the market; on the other, demand from processing companies in the EU remains strong.
In Ukraine, an increase in soybean supply from farmers has led to a price decline from trading companies and processing enterprises.
Market bids for GMO:
o DAP Ukraine (Odesa) ~385-390$
o DAP Italy (North) (train) ~395-400€
o DAP Italy (North) (truck) ~400-405€
Market bids for NON-GMO:
- DAP Ukraine (Odesa) ~425-430$
- DAP Ukraine (border) ~385-390€
- DAP Hungary (Central) ~435-440€
- DAP Italy (North) ~435-440€