SPIKE BROKERS DEALS
- corn DAP Odesa, Ukraine, Dec @200$->201$
- corn (China) DAP Odesa, Ukraine, Feb @203.5$
- soybean oil hydrated DAP border Ukraine, Dec-Jan @966€
- soybean oil hydrated DAP border Ukraine, Jan @1’015$
GLOBAL NEWS
UKRAINE
- According to EAIS data from the State Customs Service of Ukraine, the country’s November exports of grains, oilseeds, and their processed products amounted to: corn – 2.598 million tons, wheat – 1.107 million tons, barley – 157.3 thousand tons, soybeans – 415.2 thousand tons, rapeseed – 290.5 thousand tons, sunflower seeds – 1.2 thousand tons, sunflower oil – 508.6 thousand tons, soybean oil – 43.3 thousand tons, and meal – 356.5 thousand tons.
- As of November 2, winter crops were sown on the following areas: wheat – 4.38 million hectares (98% of the planned area), barley – 611.1 thousand hectares (96%), and rapeseed – 1.08 million hectares (96%).
WORLD
- Despite adverse weather conditions in Australia that have negatively affected wheat quality, the country aims to harvest 31.9 million tons of grain in the current 2024/2025 marketing year. This figure surpasses the 10-year average of 26.6 million tons.
- In India, a warmer-than-usual winter is forecasted, posing risks to the yields of wheat, rapeseed, and chickpeas. A significant drop in production may compel India to increase grain imports to meet the needs of its population, estimated at 1.4 billion people.
EUROPE
- EU corn imports from July 1 to December 1 amounted to 8.5 million tons, representing a 10% increase compared to the same period last year. In November, Ukraine’s share of total EU imports rose to 52.6%, compared to 46.4% in October and 51.2% a year ago. Meanwhile, the share of the United States and Brazil decreased to 15.3% (from 18.6% in October) and 18.9% (from 20% in October), respectively. However, it is worth noting that despite the monthly decline in the U.S. share, its annual share increased more than tenfold compared to the previous season, rising from 1.2%.
- EU imports of soft wheat decreased by 1% to 3.87 million tons compared to the previous year. Ukraine’s share of EU wheat imports in November dropped to 67.1%, down from 72.1% in October.
COMMODITY MARKET
CORN
European buyers are gradually resuming activity, driving price increases. Over the week, corn prices rose by €3–5 for deliveries to western Germany and by €8–10 for deliveries to the Netherlands. The new 2025 crop is trading at a €20 discount compared to the current harvest for deliveries to Italy.
Unexpectedly, the Ukrainian market has become more active ahead of the New Year. Buyers are raising prices to encourage sellers to finalize deals for January-February. On average, prices at Odessa ports increased by $3–4, reaching a peak of $201/ton for December deliveries. A premium of approximately $1/ton is observed for later delivery periods on a monthly basis.
Market bids:
- DAP Ukraine (Odesa) ~200-201$
- DAP Ukraine (Danube) ~198-202$
- DAP Ukraine (border) ~180-182€
- FCA Ukraine (border) ~193-195€
- DAP Italy (North)~230-235€
- DAP Germany (West)~215-218€
- DAP The Netherlands (Central) ~220-223€
WHEAT
In Europe, buyer activity remains low, as most mills have secured sufficient raw material supplies. Demand for feed wheat is weak.
In Ukrainian seaports, prices for milling wheat have slightly increased. Supply remains limited, while demand for high-protein grain stays strong. Prices for feed wheat have not experienced significant changes.
Market bids:
- DAP Ukraine (Odesa) 11.5pro ~210-215$
- DAP Ukraine (Odesa) feed ~202-204$
- DAP Italy (North) feed ~224-230€
- DAP Germany (West)~215-218€
- DAP The Netherlands (Central) ~217-220€
SUNFLOWER
The sunflower market in Ukraine has remained stable over the week, with no significant price changes. Supply volumes have decreased as buyers lowered their prices. Processor demand has also declined, as most enterprises have secured sufficient raw materials for 1–2 months. Plants are actively selling processed products for delivery through March, indicating adequate stock levels.
Sunflower oil prices at Odessa ports remain steady at $1,110–1,115/ton for December deliveries.
Market bids for sunflower:
- DAP Ukraine (plant) (46% on dry) ~510-535$
- DAP Bulgaria (Central) (44% as is) ~605-615$
- CIF Bulgaria (port) (44% as is) ~600-605$
SOYBEANS
The European soybean market is experiencing restrained buyer activity due to sufficient coverage of their needs.
Meanwhile, the Ukrainian market remains stable, with low buyer activity.
Market bids for GMO:
- DAP Ukraine (Odesa) ~384-387$
- FCA Ukraine (border) ~360-365€
- DAP Italy (North) (train) ~400-410€
- DAP Italy (North) (truck) ~415-420€
Market bids for NON-GMO:
- DAP Ukraine (Odesa) ~425-430$
- FCA Ukraine (border) ~395-400€
- DAP Italy (North) ~430-440€