Despite russia's attempts to halt Ukraine's agricultural exports by cutting off maritime logistics, alternative routes are proving their viability.
From September, we expect agricultural exports via the Danube to reach approximately 900,000 tonnes. Corn, soybeans and rapeseed are being actively shipped overland, and as supplies of late-harvest crops increase, exports by rail and road could rise to 1.3 million tonnes.
However, alternative routes cannot meet all the market's needs. Logistics therefore remain a bottleneck for every crop.

Ukrainian farmers have established clear sales priorities based on profitability. Rapeseed, soybeans and sunflower seeds come first, followed by corn and feed wheat. Farmers traditionally hold back milling wheat.

Monthly rapeseed exports exceed 200,000 tonnes and could reach as much as 400,000 tonnes in September, highlighting the imbalance between export and domestic markets. Domestic crushers are counting on the fact that not all farmers have the capacity to arrange logistics and fulfil export contracts.
At the same time, processors face many of the same logistical challenges as exporters, alongside additional issues involving VAT refunds and financing their operations. However, drawing on their experience in 2022, Ukrainian producers have resumed cooperation with European buyers. As a result, it is mainly smaller farmers who are supplying rapeseed to domestic crushers.
From November onwards, however, soybean and corn exports are expected to gradually displace rapeseed, with substantial rail capacity and transshipment slots already booked for these crops.

The Western Border: A Key Export Route for Corn
Ukraine's western border could become one of the most efficient logistics routes for corn and soybeans. The EU expects corn imports to increase to 28 million tonnes, creating substantial opportunities for Ukrainian exporters.
Unlike wheat, corn can be transported from the producer to a European train at Ukraine's western border at a logistics cost of approximately €50/mt.
There is, however, one major constraint: the total rail logistics capacity across Ukraine's western border is approximately 1.2-1.3 million tonnes. Consequently, international buyers will face limited availability of Ukrainian corn due to restricted logistics capacity, which will absorb much of the potential price premium. A sharp increase in corn prices is therefore unlikely.

Currently, 99% of available logistics capacity has already been allocated to corn contracts for the next three to six months. Pressure on infrastructure has been increasing since September, and a significant proportion of shipments under existing contracts will be rolled over from one month to the next. This will create additional logistical pressure and could weigh on corn prices until March. For the coming months, corn prices on a loaded European train basis stand at approximately €190-192/mt. Meanwhile, January-March contracts are being concluded at around €200/mt, with April-June delivery prices reaching €205/mt due to reduced supply pressure.
By focusing exclusively on nearby delivery periods, producers risk putting themselves at a disadvantage. A more structured sales strategy, with deliveries planned three to six months ahead, could secure an additional premium of €10-20/mt.
Even if Ukraine's seaports were to reopen, corn prices would not necessarily increase significantly. Under an operational maritime corridor, the estimated fair value of corn currently stands at no more than €193/mt, or approximately $220/mt CPT.
Meanwhile, corn prices at the western border have reached $228/mt. This means that, for producers in central Ukraine, maritime and overland export routes offer broadly comparable net prices.

Wheat Remains Dependent on Maritime Logistics
For wheat, whose principal export destinations include North Africa and the Middle East, access to maritime logistics is particularly important.
Transporting wheat from central Ukraine through the Romanian border, or even via Izmail to Constanța, costs approximately $120-140/mt. Each route also has its own operational challenges and capacity limitations.
Nevertheless, Ukraine continues to export approximately 800,000 tonnes of wheat per month, with September shipments potentially reaching 1 million tonnes.

The strategy adopted by Ukrainian farmers to hold back wheat stocks could prove profitable, even if the maritime corridor does not reopen before December.
By then, the global market may fully recognize that up to 20 million tonnes of grain from the Black Sea region will remain unavailable before the end of the marketing year. Such a supply shortfall could trigger a substantial increase in global grain prices.