Peak grain export activity expected in February and March
Every market operates according to its own cycles and underlying fundamentals. The current marketing season is shaping up to be relatively favorable. However, alongside the traditional factors that drive pricing and trade flows, geopolitical uncertainty will remain a major variable influencing global agricultural markets.

Corn: the market leader
When assessing grain export activity, it is essential to consider not only the volumes already exported but also the quantities contracted for shipment in the coming months. These figures provide the clearest picture of the exportable balance remaining for each commodity.
By the end of January, Ukraine's corn exports are expected to reach approximately 10 million tonnes.
This season's fundamentals are markedly different from last year. Ukraine harvested around 18% less corn than in the previous marketing year, while entering the season without significant carryover stocks. As a result, the market has experienced a tight supply-demand balance since September.
After accounting for exports through the end of January, roughly 13 million tonnes of corn remain available for export. Of this volume, nearly 3 million tonnes have already been contracted for shipment during February and March. Consequently, the freely available export supply is effectively below 10 million tonnes, which is likely to keep the market tight until the arrival of the new feed wheat crop in August.
Historically, February and March represent the peak export period for Ukrainian corn. Therefore, the volumes remaining in the country after March will largely determine market conditions in both Ukraine and Europe during the second quarter. Corn continues to dominate Ukraine's export portfolio, while export shipments remain steady. Demand from international buyers is expected to stay firm over the coming months. On the contrary, market activity is likely to increase, providing further support for prices, provided the geopolitical environment remains relatively stable.
The depreciation of the U.S. dollar has also become a supportive factor for global corn prices. Since Ukrainian corn is predominantly traded in U.S. dollars, the strengthening of the euro has made Ukrainian supplies increasingly attractive for European buyers. Should the euro continue to appreciate against the dollar, the dollar-denominated value of Ukrainian corn prices may also increase.

Wheat demand
By the end of January, Ukraine is expected to have exported approximately 10.6-10.7 million tonnes of wheat.
Considering the export ceiling of 16.2 million tonnes established under the Grain Export Memorandum, around 5.5 million tonnes remain available for export. With current export shipments slightly exceeding 1 million tonnes per month, these remaining volumes could be exported over the next five months.
In reality, the freely tradable balance is closer to 4 million tonnes, as approximately 80% of the wheat scheduled for shipment in February and March has already been purchased and is currently being prepared for export.
Globally, wheat prices traditionally begin to reflect harvests in Argentina, Australia, and Canada during the January-March period. Consequently, the combination of Northern Hemisphere carryover stocks and increasing exports from the Southern Hemisphere during the second half of the marketing year is expected to limit further upside in export markets.
Another key factor remains competition with Russian wheat across Ukraine's traditional destinations in Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. In more distant markets, Ukrainian wheat also competes directly with supplies from the United States, Argentina, Australia, and Canada.
However, January wheat exports from russia have fallen to one of their lowest levels since 2017. This creates an opportunity for Ukrainian wheat prices to remain relatively resilient throughout the remainder of the marketing season and potentially continue strengthening into June and July.
Several additional variables will influence pricing before the end of the season. Crop conditions, which will become clearer by late February and early March, will play an important role in shaping spring market expectations. At the same time, some traders already view current forward prices for the new crop as an attractive starting point for the season.
At present, new-crop milling wheat is actively trading above $200, while feed wheat is priced slightly below $200. New-crop corn is also trading at approximately $200. These price levels provide attractive initial margins for producers, although they also represent relatively high costs for global feed and food industries, which may limit further price increases.
Given today's increasingly volatile geopolitical environment, where political decisions can instantly disrupt supply chains and trade flows, adopting a more conservative marketing strategy appears prudent. If new-crop pricing remains favorable and crop prospects are positive, forward-selling up to 30% of expected production may be a reasonable approach.

Soybeans: reading the market
By the end of January, Ukraine had exported approximately 2 million tonnes of soybeans, leaving around 1.7 million tonnes available for export.
Traditionally, most GMO soybeans are shipped to the MENA region. At the same time, Ukraine has significantly expanded its presence in the European soybean market compared with previous years, representing an encouraging long-term trend. Strengthening commercial relationships and improving competitiveness within the EU should therefore remain a strategic priority.
Brazil continues to be the primary driver of the global soybean market, making competition increasingly challenging each year. This season, soybean harvesting in Brazil has been delayed, which unexpectedly supported Chicago soybean futures following the USDA report. Instead of the anticipated surge of Brazilian exports entering the global market, delayed harvesting prompted traders and processors to secure supplies elsewhere, resulting in stronger prices for both old-crop and new-crop soybeans.
Harvest delays in Brazil also affect the country's corn planting schedule, indirectly providing additional price support for global corn markets.

The European context
The European soybean market is expected to remain under pressure from both accumulated inventories and increasing arrivals of Brazilian supplies, with larger shipments anticipated during the second half of February. This creates significant competitive pressure for Ukrainian exporters, as Brazilian and U.S. soybeans currently enjoy a pricing advantage.
Nevertheless, the European market is highly segmented. Buyers that have established relationships with Ukrainian suppliers are expected to continue sourcing Ukrainian soybeans despite increased competition.
Ukraine has expanded its share of the European soybean market by approximately 3% this season. While exports to the EU totaled only around 500,000 tonnes last year, deliveries have already approached 900,000 tonnes this season. Given Ukraine's total soybean export potential of roughly 3.7 million tonnes, more than one-quarter of exports are now destined for the European Union.
Turkey accounts for approximately 30% of Ukrainian soybean exports, followed by Egypt and other African markets.
From a long-term perspective, Ukraine's export strategy should increasingly reflect regional market advantages and the location of processing capacity. Further integration with the European market appears to be the most logical strategic direction. The EU remains Ukraine's closest, most stable, most secure, and most solvent export destination. Rather than pursuing relatively small price premiums in distant markets while assuming greater commercial and payment risks, Ukraine should continue strengthening partnerships focused on production, processing, and trade within the European Union.

Rapeseed: uncertainty ahead
Ukrainian rapeseed exports are typically concentrated within the first four months after harvest. Nearly 3 million tonnes have already been exported this season, leaving only around 200,000 tonnes available for shipment. For producers, the current season has therefore been largely completed successfully.
The outlook for the next season, however, remains considerably more uncertain.
As rapeseed is a key feedstock for biodiesel production, its pricing is closely linked to crude oil markets. Should oil prices decline significantly, biodiesel producers may reduce processing volumes despite expectations of smaller rapeseed harvests in both Ukraine and Europe.
This uncertainty is already evident in the cautious approach of European crushers, many of whom remain reluctant to commit to forward purchases following the initial statements of the new U.S. administration regarding lower oil prices.
Consequently, geopolitical developments and energy markets may become increasingly important drivers for oilseed prices, including rapeseed, soybeans, and even corn used for bioethanol production. Under these conditions, forward-selling approximately 20-30% of expected production may provide an appropriate balance between risk management and profitability.

The battle of the titans
The United States and Brazil remain direct competitors in both soybean and corn markets, with their presence in the European Union continuing to expand each year.
The allocation of planted acreage between soybeans and corn in both countries will therefore remain one of the key drivers of global supply and pricing.
U.S. farmers are expected to increase corn plantings by 2-3 million acres, reaching approximately 94 million acres, as they respond not only to domestic policy changes but also to growing competition from Brazil in soybean exports and weaker Chinese demand.
Assuming favorable weather conditions, another record U.S. corn crop could place considerable downward pressure on global prices.
At the same time, geopolitical developments may trigger rapid shifts in trade policy and international trade flows, making 2025 one of the most volatile years for agricultural markets in recent history.

Old crop vs. new crop
For corn, one of the most important market events during late February and early March will be confirmation of U.S. planting intentions, which may significantly influence both old-crop and new-crop pricing. In wheat markets, processors also play an important role. Whenever new-crop wheat trades substantially below old-crop values, processors often postpone purchases of old-crop grain while temporarily substituting alternative raw materials or even purchasing flour instead.
Currently, Ukrainian new-crop wheat is trading nearly $20/mt below old-crop wheat. Should this spread persist, processors may reduce old-crop purchases by April or May, ultimately narrowing the price gap as demand shifts toward the new harvest.
A similar pattern typically develops in the corn market, although price convergence generally occurs later in the season.

Freight matters
Provided there are no major disruptions during February, Ukraine is expected to experience peak grain sales and export activity. As freight demand strengthens, logistics providers are likely to increase freight rates after an extended period of weak demand.
The impact of freight costs on farmgate prices is already clearly visible. In November, 11% protein wheat delivered CIF Egypt traded at approximately $232, while the corresponding CPT Ukraine price stood at $204-205. Today, wheat delivered CIF Egypt is priced around $245, while CPT Ukraine has increased to approximately $225.
In other words, Ukrainian CPT prices have increased by around $20, whereas destination market prices have risen by only $8. The difference has been largely supported by lower freight costs.
Lower freight rates therefore allowed Ukrainian prices to increase almost 2.5 times more than prices in destination markets.
However, this supportive factor may soon reverse. As export activity accelerates, maritime freight rates could increase by 10-20%, placing immediate downward pressure on CPT prices at Ukrainian seaports.

Forward marketing: a strategic tool
Ukraine is entering the most active phase of marketing both remaining old-crop inventories and the upcoming harvest. Producers pursuing a more balanced marketing strategy are expected to become increasingly active in forward contracting. Before the full-scale war, Ukraine had one of the strongest forward markets in Europe, with up to 50% of new-crop production typically sold before May.
This system distributed supply more evenly throughout the season and reduced harvest-time price pressure.
Successful forward marketing requires careful planning together with commercial partners, including optimization of quality specifications, delivery timing, and logistics.
For example, producers may benefit from selling feed wheat or using multi-grade contracts rather than committing exclusively to milling wheat. Since crop quality cannot be fully predicted before harvest, contracts allowing delivery across several quality categories at predefined prices provide greater flexibility while securing overall sales volumes.
Ukraine has also introduced minimum export prices, which currently remain well below prevailing market levels.
Today's logistics market offers another opportunity. Freight costs are currently at relatively low levels, making it attractive to secure transportation under forward contracts before seasonal demand pushes rates higher.
Finally, the European processing industry increasingly relies on long-term procurement planning. Raw materials often require several weeks of transportation before processing, packaging, and final distribution. As a result, Ukraine will inevitably continue moving toward longer-term contracting practices. While this requires greater planning discipline, it also provides producers with the opportunity to lock in margins well in advance, creating greater financial stability and improving long-term business resilience.